Predicting 2019

Brad Feld, Fred Wilson and BillGates’ new year blogs inspired me to write this post today.

To the cosmos this is just another day but to humans this is that time of the year where they expend a tremendous amount of energy in planning, changing and predicting how the next 365 days are going to be. I did not see the value of this futile exercise until last year when I put my goals down on paper and then announced them on my blog and all my social media handles. I know for a fact that I have missed out on achieving several goals that I had set out for, but the ones I did achieve had a different sense of achievement.

While I introspect on the reasons behind the misses, one of the serious flaws in my goal setting was the lack of thought in predicting the status of the economy and events in 2018 and how they would affect my goals. For example, if I would have predicted that there would be a slowdown in venture funding due to the collapse of the angel investment ecosystem, I would have known that achieving 10 new investments for AVF would amount to nothing but a pipedream. Not foreseeing that set me off by 80% on that goal. Therefore, this year it made better sense to put down my predictions first and then plan my goals with those predictions in mind. So here goes:

I believe that 2019 will be a fantastic year for India, (that is) if India continues to enjoy a single party majority after the May 2019 assembly polls. I would prefer a strong leader like Narendra Modi to continue to lead the country instead of a council of ministers with their own agendas clouding the judgement of the prime minister.

The chances of Modi’s return are high as there are strong signals that the economy has gained momentum and is continuing to grow much better than what was expected post-GST implementation. Banks have seen better recovery from NPAs than what was predicted and with stronger balance sheets they will be out lending once again. There is also a good chance that the RBI will reduce interest rates due to lower than expected inflation on the collapse of crude prices. These events could flood the market with liquidity which is an ideal scenario for the incumbent party before an election because it improves the views about the incumbent in a short-lived public memory. With all this in mind, I believe that Indian GDP should grow at 8% in 2019.

The uncertainty over global trade wars have reduced significantly, and a buoyant Indian economy would lead to a record year for the stock market indices. I believe that this would percolate to the start-up ecosystem through an increase in M&A activity and many Indian corporates would setup CVCs to keep up with innovation and justify their high valuations. I believe that the government will bring in clarity to the use of Aadhar verification which will help to revive Fintech activity and implement guidelines for bringing cryptos back to India. The guidelines may not be along the lines that crypto purists would appreciate, but it will be a significant step ahead in comparison to the current situation. This is also going be a pivotal year for the start-ups raising money as we will see a rise in the number of active funds looking for deals and that will quickly fill the vacuum created by the angel networks. The better-informed entrepreneurs will avoid the “large” & distributed format angel investment networks and instead choose to have closer relationships with their funding partners. Entrepreneurs will seek funding partners like professional investors like VC funds, super-angels and family offices and we should see in rounds that have a smaller number of “professional” investors but with a larger investment per investor, and this trend will continue. The loss of good investment opportunities to professional investors will drive out the marginal angel investors that make up the bulk of India’s angel networks. These marginal angels will also experience their first round of write-offs which many of them aren’t prepared for, so they’re going to leave in droves.

The serious angel investors will demand much better deal flow and portfolio services to continue to invest their capital, something that will be difficult for marginal angel networks to achieve since they have not built these capacities. I believe that the angel networks will start to shut down – marginal ones at first and the larger ones becoming marginal, eventually ceasing to exist in following years.

When it comes to the overall Artha portfolio I believe that LenDenClub, Coutloot, ChaiBreak, Fynd, Karza Technologies, BabyChakra and X-Prime to have a headline sort of a year which will firmly put them in “pole” positions in their respective spaces. If they do not convert this year of opportunity into something substantial, then I believe a golden opportunity would be lost, forever.

In terms of where I would like AVF to invest, I am excited about the prospects of e-Sports and its growing popularity across the globe and in India. I think it would be interesting to evaluate an esports company for investment as I believe that this format can generate massive scale in a country where the average age group will be below 30 for the next 10 years. 

Statistic: India: Average age of the population from 1950 to 2050 (median age in years) | Statista
Find more statistics at Statista

I would also like to see founders developing sustainable business models from the opportunities that the Ayushman Bharat health insurance scheme provides for rural healthcare. Healthcare has been a very small portion of Artha’s portfolio and this year could be a good time to increase our exposure in the space.

So, here are my predictions for 2019.

I wish you and your loved ones a very happy 2019!

1/2019

It Took this Infographic to Fully Appreciate 2018!

2018 has had its fair share of highs and lows, and it wasn’t until my team summarized our progress through the year (personally and professionally) that the all-encompassing scale of this year was visible, and what a year it has been!

2018 in a Nutshell

Armed with this data, I’ll be evaluating and sending out the hits and misses for 2018. I will especially keep in mind the misses when planning my goals for 2019. I will be sharing my list of goals for 2019 within the week because I truly believe that unless one announces their goals to the universe, there is very little chance of actually achieving them.

That’s it for this year, see you in the new year!

104/2018

How Did You Die

Siri tells me that it took 1,347 days from my first blog post, Dropping Out Of The Rat Race… to my 100th blog post. Thereby, on an average taking 13.5 days to write each blog post. If I remove the 31 blog posts written in 66 days of this year, the average will shoot up to 18.5 days per post, therefore making it evident that things are already looking up for my blog.
In the journey to 100 blog posts, I have had many interesting & challenging moments. There was a post defending an investee company against a much larger competitor that made it to the Economic Times (without my knowledge). The reaction to this was a screwball approach from their legal advisor who tried to pose as though they were trying to make us their client. That whole experience that was blown out of proportion led to a writer’s block, that made me stop writing for almost 2 months. There have also been times where I wasn’t confident if what I was writing was meaningful enough for people to read. While reading the Bhagavad Gita over the course of the last 2 years, however, I have come to the realization that it isn’t worth stressing over whether people like what I write or not. All I am responsible for is writing and expressing my thoughts and the way it is perceived isn’t under my control. That lesson (albeit difficult) is something I am starting to imbibe as a motto for all the things that I do in life and hopefully inspire the people around me to pick it up too.
Which is why I think this poem from Edmund Vance Cooke is the best way to express what I have learnt from the journey to the 100th blog post, a target that I did not believe I could achieve when I started (my goal was 50).
Now my goal is to just write every weekday (my goal is 260 blogs for the year) with no particular number of blogs in mind. The only goal is to write and to keep on writing, come what may cause in the end it is the journey that counts.

How Did you Die

by Edmund Vance Cooke

Did you tackle that trouble that came your way

With a resolute heart and cheerful?

Or hide your face from the light of day

With a craven soul and fearful?

Oh, a trouble’s a ton, or a trouble’s an ounce,

Or a trouble is what you make it,

And it isn’t the fact that you’re hurt that counts,

But only how did you take it? You are beaten to earth?

Well, well, what’s that!

Come up with a smiling face.

It’s nothing against you to fall down flat,

But to lie there–that’s a disgrace.

The harder you’re thrown, why the higher you bounce

Be proud of your blackened eye!

It isn’t the fact that you’re licked that counts;

It’s how did you fight–and why?

And though you be done to the death, what then?

If you battled the best you could,

If you played your part in the world of men,

Why, the Critic will call it good.

Death comes with a crawl, or comes with a pounce,

And whether he’s slow or spry,

It isn’t the fact that you’re dead that counts,

But only how did you die?

 31/2018

Putting it All Down on Paper

2017 was a pivotal year for Artha. Artha India Ventures surpassed 50 investments, Artha Energy Resources tripled revenues, we launched Artha Venture Fund I & Artha Creative Studios. Although there was significant progress during the year, there wasn’t enough reason to celebrate just yet. Even with all the progress that we had made as a group, it felt as though we had stumbled our way there instead of having driven there with intent. 2017 could have been 10% better or worse and I would have felt the same way. Why? Because I didn’t set goals for 2017 so whatever I did achieve was progress – but was it a reflection of luck or hard work? Was it progress worth celebrating or berating?  
I had the luxury of better counsel. A study on goal setting by Dr Gail Matthews of the Dominican University in California concluded that the group of people who write down their goals are over 50% more likely to achieve them versus the group of people that think of them just in their head. The results are even better for those that write their goals and send them to a friend.  
While I cannot change what I didn’t do in 2017, 2018 is a new year with a fresh start. I started a process to: 

  1. Identify the areas/roles in my life that I wanted to focus on for 2018 
  2. Re-read material on setting SMART goals  
  3. Share the goals with my team and family for buy-in & feedback  
  4. Print them out and keep them on my desk, above my bed and on the mirror in my bathroom  

Writing out my goals has indeed managed to increase my energy levels and motivation at the office and at home. With a clear focus on what I want to achieve in 2018, I believe that I am already 50% of the way there.   
Artha Goal_lighShade-01[8] 
1/2018